This week started off hot for those of us in the UK, for March that is. Monday temperatures reached 22degrees and Tuesday was the warmest day in March that UK has seen in 53 years (Sky News) at 24 degrees.
As weather influences beverage sales quite significantly, I decided to check out a few supermarkets on Monday to see how they were doing. Monday was also the day lockdowns eased.
I saw more people at the beer & wine section in the supermarket than I have seen in a while now! When asked about whether they were buying for Easter or for immediate consumption, all of them said that they were buying for immediate consumption. Some of them were going to the park, so they had some fruit and snacks as well and a few were buying for dinner on their patio at home.
As you can see, brands and products were already starting to go out of stock and some already were. Tuesday was also a warm day and we expect that availability of brands would have decreased even more by end of day Tuesday. The manager of a wine store that I walked into, said that she sold more White wines, Rose wines & Sparkling wine/Champagne on a Monday than ever before.
We expect quite a few brands and products would have gone out of stock by end of day Tuesday and there was quite a bit of revenue ‘left on the table’.
This is a classic example of VUCA, when demand for Beer, Wines, Water, non-alcoholic beverages & ready to drink beverages increased significantly when compared to March in previous years.
Applying the framework we described in our previous blog, sales teams for FMCG companies should be monitoring weather forecasts and playing close attention to variances from ‘normal’ weather for the month so they can adjust sales volumes accordingly.
In the absence of a sales prediction model, optimal volume levels will be a matter of trial and error. But paying attention to these fluctuations would go a long way toward preventing the significant loss of sales we see now.
If you’d like to discuss how a sales prediction model can help or understand what factors influence each FMCG category, feel free to email me on firstname.lastname@example.org