Easter eggs – the stock out no one expected in 2021

This blog is about why Easter eggs went out of stock for Easter 2021.

The news outlets and consumers all agree on one thing. Easter eggs were out of stock for Easter 2021.

There were several angry and disappointed customers tweeting about the shortage and news outlets are also talking about this.

It certainly wasn’t caused by people stockpiling Easter eggs. Some speculated that this was caused because people did not buy them early enough. According to an article in The Guardian, Asda said it had seen a surge in hot cross buns, individual chocolate bunnies and even novelty bunny ears, while sales of Easter crafting, decorations and games were up a whopping 207% year on year.


They are using 2020 to compare 2021 with. The Easter Egg orders for 2021 were made based on 2020 sales. Now what do you think is wrong with this statement?

In March 2020, everyone was going into lockdowns, vs April 2021, when lockdowns were easing. When UK retailers were placing orders for Easter eggs in late 2020, lockdowns had eased to a large extent and was in the period just before the next lockdown.

So why did retailers use 2020 orders as baseline for 2021? They anticipated an increase vs 2020, but the increase was not enough to account for normal consumption rates pre-covid.

For those who know this industry, it wouldn’t come as a surprise. Retailer orders are based on or pegged to previous year sales, not based on expected consumer demand. However, consumers do not replicate consumption habits year on year.

Retailers and the brands that sell into retailers need to be more data driven when they place orders during these fast changing times. Consumer preferences and the factors that influence them change on an almost daily basis these days. Expecting consumers to mirror previous year sales and pegging their consumption to previous year sales plus an uplift results in the two extremes – under stocking (lost revenues/sales and angry consumers) or overstocking (cost of the working capital involved).

To learn more about how to use data to predict consumer preferences and order volumes, email me on veena@salesbeat.co

What should the sector expect over 2021 with lockdowns easing?

This blog is about how lockdown easing is expected to impact sales in different sectors.

Over 2020, we saw significant increase in food & beverage sales and cleaning products.

Sales in the make up and hair care sectors was lacklustre.

This was driven by lockdowns causing consumers to stay at home. As they were not able to go out to a restaurant, they shopped at grocery stores for different foods and beverages. Due to the very same driver, sales of make-up and hair care brands decreased significantly.

Increased sales of cleaning products in 2020 was driven by an increased consciousness of hygiene due to the pandemic.

As we look at 2021, with successful vaccination campaigns and with lockdowns easing, we expect make up and hair care sales to increase in anticipation of and due to social activity. As restaurants, bars and cafes opening up, we expect grocery sales of food & beverages to decline slightly. But the sector is expected to retain a major share of the gains from last year as people cautiously venture out as lockdowns ease.

The one sector we expect will retain the increased sales from 2020 is the cleaning products sector. As people go out and enjoy the return to normal, to keep safe, we expect consumers to buy and use more cleaning products than they used to pre-covid.

If you’d like to learn more and understand how individual categories may be impacted by the easing of lockdowns, email me on veena@salesbeat.co