Heatwaves – Making the most of demand

We are only just past halfway through 2022. However, this year has already been extraordinary in many respects, one of which is the record breaking number of heatwaves we’ve seen so far across the world. For those interested, this Wikipedia page lists all the heatwaves in 2022 to date.

Impact on sales

A comparison of sales in the 12 weeks to 10 July 2022, to sales in the 12 weeks to 11 July 2021, shows mixed performance across grocery stores in the UK, with discounters gaining the most, due to consumers switching to them to minimise their grocery spend in light of soaring inflation.

However, despite current inflation rates, BRC-KPMG retail sales monitor for July 2022 showed that total sales increased by 2.3% during the month, bringing to an end three consecutive months of decline.

Ice cream, beer, water & barbecue ingredients sales benefitted the most from the heatwave, while sales of barbecue grills themselves rocketed during this time despite fire hazard warnings. Outdoor furniture sales also benefitted, as more people planned to spend time outdoors in August. Clothing retailers also benefitted during this time.

Gelato & ice cream brands and vendors benefitted all through Europe, as people consumed them in a bid to cool down.

US grocery sales, in the meantime, also benefitted from this, albeit in a different way. Online grocery sales saw the most increase at 17% vs prior year in July, as more consumers sought to avoid travelling outside during this time.

On the overall, US supermarkets benefitted from increased demand during this period, with Albertsons companies benefitting the least at 10% growth vs prior year.

However, some delayed impacts of these heatwaves are yet to come. Typically, for regions that have high humidity levels, heatwaves bring with them increased demand at a later date for anti mould and anti fungal products. Also, shampoo, conditioner, anti frizz hair products and shower gel sales increase following heatwaves as people use these more frequently during heatwaves than they usually do.

So how can you best prepare your store for these heatwaves?

Keep an eye on weather forecasts by reputable agencies. When a heatwave, storm, cold wave or any unusual weather event is expected, look at temperatures expected, humidity levels etc and consider how these, in combination, will impact human behaviour.

For instance, a heatwave is declared in the UK anytime the temperature rises above 25℃ or 26℃. When temperatures are between 26℃ & 32℃, people plan to and are likely to go out, and enjoy the warm weather outdoors. So sales of certain products like beer, wine, water, picnic essentials, barbecue ingredients etc are all likely to increase a few days ahead of these heatwaves. Sales of these products continue to stay elevated during the heatwave as some consumers maybe more impulse led than others. During this period, depending on humidity levels, sales of anti frizz hair products and brands may also increase.

However, when temperatures increase beyond 35℃, sales of these products may not increase as much, as some people may prefer staying indoors where it is cooler. Also, impulse sales will not be as high at stores, and may move to quick commerce channels, as more people want to avoid the heat outside.

When a heatwave is expected, looking at humidity and dust levels is important when considering what and how much to reorder as they impact demand for shampoos, conditioners, moisturisers, home cleaning products and laundry products.

Sound complex? That is because, it is

Impact of changes in weather can be difficult to predict when looking at things in isolation. So consider not just weather forecasts, but also the demographics of consumers around your store location. People from different countries behave differently when it comes to weather. So if your store is located in a cosmopolitan area, consider how people from different backgrounds may react differently to these changes.

If you’d like to learn more about how to prepare for unexpected weather events and maximise sales during these times, email me on veena@salesbeat.co

Climate change and FMCG sales

Climate change in the form of extreme heat, hurricanes, flooding etc. presents an inherent risk to FMCG companies. It disrupts raw material supply and logistics (roads buckling, flights unable to take off and ships tossed about), resulting in price increases.

British Retail Consortium and NAACDs published studies that establish that every one degree change in temperature results in a 1% fluctuation of sales. However, companies and retailers are still not prepared for this.

The recent heatwaves in Europe and the resulting out of stocks and overstocking of certain SKUs at stores, are proof that inventory management technology has not yet caught up with the problems of today. So how exactly does climate change impact demand?

Obvious examples of climate change impacting sales

Ice-Creams, beer, white wine, rosé wine, chilled carbonated beverages, barbecue ingredients and products, picnic food, sunblock and sunscreen are the obvious ones that retailers stock up on when there is a heatwave.

According to Majestic Wine in the UK, during this last heatwave in July, Rosé outsold white and red wines by more than 172,000 bottles in that week alone. One bottle of Rosé wine was sold every 12 seconds!

Research firm Kantar said, ‘Sun care sales were up 66% and ice cream 14% in the four weeks to 10 July’.

During cold waves, pasta, pasta sauces, soups, baking ingredients, red wine, spirits, lotions for dry skin, flu medications etc experience increased demand.

Regions at risk of experiencing tornadoes, cyclones, hurricanes or storms, or where there are flood warnings in place, are likely to see increased demand for basic necessities like tinned & frozen food (incl. vegetables), packaged soup & pasta mixes, toilet paper, soaps, shampoo and household cleaning products.

Some not so obvious ones

However, there are a few not so obvious SKUs that experience increased demand as a result of unseasonal weather. The impact is not immediately seen and so maybe masked by other factors.

For example when both temperatures and humidity levels are high, there is a delayed increase in demand for anti mould & anti fungal products, shampoos, body soaps, conditioners, anti frizz hair products etc as consumers use more of these up at home during this time.

Another not so obvious one is a (delayed) increase in demand for allergy medications following a period when the weather is hot and humidity levels are low. Pollen count and dust levels impact demand of this product too.

Planning for unseasonal temperatures and weather events

While inventory teams and FMCG sales people may be making plans for barbecues and outdoor picnics when these heatwaves hit, several times, they do not translate this into their work lives.

And, when they do, they need to make guesstimates of the right levels of stock of these products at stores. This is because their demand planning system is unlikely to have taken this heatwave (or cold wave/other weather event) into account.

However, you know what you do as a consumer. It is not a stretch of the imagination to assume others are likely to do the same. Use this knowledge to help prepare your supermarket/FMCG company to ensure there is enough stock of impacted SKU to meet demand/delayed demand.

Follow the weather and ensure you do not order too much of one SKU assuming seasonality still holds. An example is ordering a container load of red wine in December assuming robust Christmas sales, when warmer, unseasonal temperatures are expected for Christmas.

Also, check out our blog on how you can anticipate changes in demand in a VUCA world.

If you have any questions or would like more information on how you can better prepare for demand changes driven by climate change, contact me on veena@salesbeat.co



A timely example of VUCA

A ~1min video on how to sell more effectively in these times

This week started off hot for those of us in the UK, for March that is. Monday temperatures reached 22degrees and Tuesday was the warmest day in March that UK has seen in 53 years (Sky News) at 24 degrees.

Would you have expected this for March in the UK?

As weather influences beverage sales quite significantly, I decided to check out a few supermarkets on Monday to see how they were doing. Monday was also the day lockdowns eased.

I saw more people at the beer & wine section in the supermarket than I have seen in a while now! When asked about whether they were buying for Easter or for immediate consumption, all of them said that they were buying for immediate consumption. Some of them were going to the park, so they had some fruit and snacks as well and a few were buying for dinner on their patio at home.

Rosés and White wines are already going out of stock/out of stock in the chilled section

As you can see, brands and products were already starting to go out of stock and some already were. Tuesday was also a warm day and we expect that availability of brands would have decreased even more by end of day Tuesday. The manager of a wine store that I walked into, said that she sold more White wines, Rose wines & Sparkling wine/Champagne on a Monday than ever before.

We expect quite a few brands and products would have gone out of stock by end of day Tuesday and there was quite a bit of revenue ‘left on the table’.

This is a classic example of VUCA, when demand for Beer, Wines, Water, non-alcoholic beverages & ready to drink beverages increased significantly when compared to March in previous years.

Applying the framework we described in our previous blog, sales teams for FMCG companies should be monitoring weather forecasts and playing close attention to variances from ‘normal’ weather for the month so they can adjust sales volumes accordingly.

In the absence of a sales prediction model, optimal volume levels will be a matter of trial and error. But paying attention to these fluctuations would go a long way toward preventing the significant loss of sales we see now.

If you’d like to discuss how a sales prediction model can help or understand what factors influence each FMCG category, feel free to email me on veena@salesbeat.co